The Power of Turnout: Why Democrats Win When They Show Up—and What Harris Must Do to Mobilize Voters
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An Analysis by Lisa Hayes
With the 2024 presidential election in full swing and political tensions higher than ever, one truth remains as clear as it has been in previous elections: when Democrats turn out to vote, they win. But for Democrats, turning out the vote is both their greatest opportunity and their greatest challenge. As the party rallies behind the Biden-Harris ticket for another term, the key question remains: can Vice President Kamala Harris do what needs to be done to inspire voters who still feel uninspired by President Joe Biden?
For many Democratic strategists, the answer to winning in 2024 lies in a simple but powerful strategy—getting out the vote (GOTV). It’s not flashy or new, but it’s the single most important factor in determining the outcome of the election. At this point, everything comes down to turnout. The question isn’t whether Democrats can win—it’s whether Democrats will show up to win.
Democrats Win When They Vote
There’s a well-documented history behind the idea that Democratic victories hinge on voter turnout. In the 2018 midterms, Democrats flipped the House of Representatives after record-breaking turnout, particularly among young voters and people of color. In 2020, despite a pandemic, an economic downturn, and rampant voter suppression efforts, record Democratic turnout handed Joe Biden a decisive victory over Donald Trump.
When Democrats show up at the polls, they have the numbers to win—even in swing states. But history also shows that turnout can be the party’s Achilles heel. Voter suppression efforts, disenchantment with the political process, and the challenges of mobilizing a diverse, often disparate coalition mean that Democrats must work harder to energize their base.
In contrast, Republicans often rely on a more unified, loyal voter base that turns out consistently. This makes GOTV efforts even more critical for Democrats. The party doesn’t just need to get voters to the polls; it needs to motivate groups that historically vote in lower numbers—young people, Black and Latino voters, working-class voters, and first-time voters.
The Biden Enthusiasm Gap—and Harris’s Role
The elephant in the room for Democrats heading into 2024 is the widespread lack of enthusiasm for President Biden. Polls have shown that many Democratic voters, particularly younger ones, are not thrilled with Biden as the nominee. Despite his successes—shepherding the country through a pandemic, reviving the economy, and passing key legislation on climate change and infrastructure—Biden’s age and centrist policies have left many feeling uninspired.
Enter Kamala Harris. As the first woman, first Black woman, and first Asian American vice president, Harris has broken significant barriers and brought diversity to the Democratic ticket. Yet, her vice presidency has been marked by a relatively low profile, and there are questions about whether she can step into a leadership role that truly excites the Democratic base.
If Harris wants to galvanize voters who feel disconnected from Biden, she will need to craft a message that resonates with the party’s most critical—and often overlooked—voting blocs. These voters aren’t looking for vague platitudes or promises of a return to normalcy. They want a reason to believe that the Democratic Party will fight for their futures.
What It Will Take to Turn Out the Vote
A successful GOTV strategy for Democrats in 2024 must be bold, inclusive, and laser-focused on turnout. Here’s what it will take to make that happen:
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Connecting with Disillusioned Young Voters
One of the biggest hurdles for the Biden-Harris ticket is the apparent lack of enthusiasm among younger voters. Many of them feel that Biden’s policies don’t go far enough on the issues that matter most to them—climate change, student debt, affordable healthcare, and social justice. Harris must position herself as the candidate who hears their frustrations and is willing to push the administration—and the country—forward.
Harris needs to speak directly to these voters in terms that are relatable and aspirational. Instead of relying on the idea that “staying the course” is enough, Harris should make the case for why the future of progressive change depends on this election. Whether it’s through town halls, social media outreach, or youth-led organizing efforts, Harris has to get in front of younger voters and make a compelling case for why they should invest in the Biden-Harris ticket.
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Re-engaging Black and Latino Voters
Black and Latino voters are a critical base for Democrats, but they cannot be taken for granted. While Biden secured large margins of support from these groups in 2020, there are clear signs of disillusionment, particularly around issues of police reform, immigration, and economic inequality.
Harris, who has deep ties to the Black community and has long been a champion of civil rights, is uniquely positioned to speak to these voters. However, she needs to go beyond symbolic representation. Harris must address the concrete ways in which the administration plans to tackle issues like voter suppression, police violence, housing discrimination, and healthcare disparities. These voters need more than rhetoric; they need action plans and policy commitments.
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Countering Voter Suppression
The GOP has spent years chipping away at voting rights through gerrymandering, restrictive voter ID laws, and other forms of voter suppression. Democrats cannot afford to be passive in the face of these tactics.
GOTV efforts in 2024 must be hyper-local, ensuring that voters in key swing states and districts are not disenfranchised by new laws designed to make voting harder. Harris can play a pivotal role in supporting organizations already on the ground fighting voter suppression and working to expand access to early voting, mail-in ballots, and same-day voter registration.
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Reigniting the Energy of the 2020 Coalition
In 2020, it was the broad, diverse coalition of voters—including suburban women, young people, and people of color—that secured Biden’s victory. Rebuilding that coalition will be crucial, but it won’t happen without effort.
The key to reigniting that energy is not just reliving the successes of 2020 but framing the stakes of 2024 in stark, future-focused terms. Harris can lead this charge by emphasizing what’s on the line: reproductive rights, climate justice, racial equality, and the future of democracy itself. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and Harris needs to communicate that with urgency and clarity.
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Leveraging Grassroots Organizing
The success of Democrats in recent elections—from Biden’s victory in 2020 to the Georgia Senate runoffs—was powered by grassroots organizing. Harris needs to fully embrace the grassroots model and elevate the voices of local leaders and activists who are already doing the work of voter engagement on the ground.
This means showing up in communities that are often overlooked in political campaigns—rural areas, smaller cities, and lower-income neighborhoods. Harris needs to make it clear that the Democratic Party is fighting for everyone, not just the urban elite or traditional strongholds.
The Path to Victory Runs Through Turnout
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in modern American history, with democracy, civil rights, and the future of the planet all on the line. At this stage in the campaign, policy proposals and stump speeches are important, but they pale in comparison to one critical factor: turnout.
For Democrats, the equation is simple—if they can get their voters to the polls, they will win. The party has the numbers, but it must overcome the apathy, disillusionment, and voter suppression tactics that have historically dampened turnout.
Kamala Harris is uniquely positioned to energize the Democratic base, but she has to tap into the frustrations, hopes, and fears that voters—especially younger ones—are feeling. With the right message, the right strategy, and a relentless focus on getting out the vote, Harris can motivate the coalition that secured victory in 2020 and bring it to the polls again in 2024.
The key to success is already clear: when Democrats vote, they win. Now, it’s up to Harris to ensure that every Democrat in the country knows just how much is at stake—and that they show up to make their voices heard.
Lisa Hayes is a life coach, coach trainer, author, and editor of Confluence Daily. She specializes in social, social justice, political issues, and mental health. Her work has appeared in publications like Huffington Post and Real Simple. She is also the Communications Director for a local fire department in Mexico. You can find Lisa at www.lisamhayes.com or www.thecoachingguild.com.”
